Mako Model Portfolio
The Mako Model Portfolio is a public reference portfolio used to demonstrate the Jawz Loop in action. It is published for research, attribution, and process transparency. It is not investment advice.
Open Positions
| Symbol | Current price | Market value | Unrealized P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| SGOViShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF | $100.57 | $550,721 | +$712 (+0.13%) |
| GLDSPDR Gold Shares | $411.50 | $190,936 | -$9,029 (-4.52%) |
| PDBCInvesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF | $18.84 | $156,730 | +$6,738 (+4.49%) |
| QUALiShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF | $209.56 | $99,748 | -$231 (-0.23%) |
| USDCash | $1.00 | $55 | — |
Current Book
- SGOViShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETFetfQty 5476.00Avg cost $100.44Cost basis $550,009Actual 55.0%
Thesis. Capital preservation and optionality in a hostile macro regime.
Role. Cash-equivalent core and dry powder.
Risk. Primary risk is reinvestment/yield compression rather than mark-to-market shock.
- GLDSPDR Gold SharesetfQty 464.00Avg cost $430.96Cost basis $199,965Actual 20.0%
Thesis. Defensive real asset exposure aligned with inflation and policy-stress risk.
Role. Inflation hedge and macro shock ballast.
Risk. Gold can underperform if real yields rise sharply or if inflation stress fades faster than expected.
- PDBCInvesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETFetfQty 8319.00Avg cost $18.03Cost basis $149,992Actual 15.0%
Thesis. Direct commodity exposure aligned with the current inflation-led regime.
Role. Inflation expression and real-asset diversifier.
Risk. Commodity exposure is volatile and can reverse quickly if growth weakens faster than inflation persists.
- QUALiShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETFetfQty 476.00Avg cost $210.04Cost basis $99,979Actual 10.0%
Thesis. Measured equity participation through higher-quality large caps.
Role. Limited equity sleeve for participation and learning.
Risk. Still exposed to equity drawdown if the RED regime deepens or inflation compresses valuations further.
Change Log
- NoteMay 15, 2026
Weekly Jawz review: hold defensive FALL book unchanged
Scheduled weekly review found the public model portfolio still broadly aligned with Jawz's current YELLOW / FALL regime. The book remains overweight cash-equivalent SGOV and real assets (GLD/PDBC), with only a small QUAL quality-equity sleeve. Drift scan flagged QUAL as low fit in FALL, but at ~10% it is intentionally sized as limited participation rather than a regime bet. External business-intelligence notes point to improving liquidity and AI/capex risk appetite, but Jawz's live regime still reads inflation-dominant with cash and commodities favored, so no disciplined rebalance is warranted this week.
01 WorldJawz regime is YELLOW, business-cycle FALL/stagflation, dominant risk inflation, financial conditions loose/stable, with a freshness flag on U Michigan sentiment. Business-intelligence notes are more risk-positive (liquidity expansion, Macro Summer, AI/capex strength), but the official Jawz regime remains cautious.
02 BookPriced book coverage was effectively complete: SGOV ~$550.6k (~55%), GLD ~$193.6k (~19%), PDBC ~$154.8k (~15%), QUAL ~$100.2k (~10%), cash ~$55. The book is dominated by cash-equivalent and real-asset/inflation sleeves, matching Jawz FALL tilts. Drift scan produced one watch flag: QUAL fit score 2/5, stable since entry, because equities-quality is not favored in FALL.
03 DecideNo trade or rebalance. Keep SGOV/GLD/PDBC/QUAL weights unchanged. QUAL remains a deliberately small quality-equity participation sleeve, not a signal to increase beta. Wait for either a confirmed regime rotation or clear thesis deterioration before adjusting.
04 ObserveNext review should watch whether the Jawz regime resolves toward the more risk-on external BI read or remains inflation-dominant FALL. Reopen sizing if QUAL grows materially above its intended sleeve, GLD/PDBC theses weaken through decisive disinflation, or SGOV cash-equivalent sleeve becomes too defensive after a confirmed regime improvement.
- OpenQUALMay 6, 2026
Open QUAL quality-equity sleeve
Even in a hostile regime, a public reference portfolio should retain a modest equity sleeve. Quality large caps are the most disciplined way to keep some participation without pretending this is a favorable beta environment.
Price $210.04Value $99,97901 WorldJawz is underweight equities overall, but growth is not collapsing hard enough to justify a zero-equity posture.
02 BookA small quality-equity sleeve allows the book to stay connected to equity upside while avoiding aggressive beta or speculative exposures.
03 DecideAllocate 10% to QUAL as the portfolio's sole equity sleeve.
04 ObserveIf the regime deteriorates further, this is the first risk sleeve to revisit; if the regime improves, it is a natural source for expansion.
- OpenGLDMay 6, 2026
Open GLD inflation-hedge sleeve
Gold is the cleanest liquid hedge against policy stress, inflation distrust, and weakening confidence in nominal anchors. In the current regime it belongs as a real asset counterweight to equity and duration risk.
Price $430.96Value $199,96501 WorldJawz identifies inflation as the dominant macro risk factor, with a RED regime and stagflationary characteristics.
02 BookThe portfolio needs a real-asset sleeve that can defend purchasing power without relying on broad equity beta.
03 DecideAllocate 20% to GLD as the portfolio's primary inflation and policy-stress hedge.
04 ObserveThis position should be reevaluated if disinflation resumes decisively or if real yields rise enough to materially impair the gold thesis.
- OpenPDBCMay 6, 2026
Open PDBC commodity sleeve
The regime calls for meaningful commodity exposure, not a token weight. PDBC expresses the inflation and stagflation read cleanly while avoiding the current Jawz pricing misresolution affecting DBC.
Price $18.03Value $149,99201 WorldJawz's current regime read favors commodities in a FALL / stagflation setup because inflation remains elevated while growth is slowing.
02 BookThe book needs direct exposure to real assets that can benefit from persistent inflation pressure and supply-side stress.
03 DecideAllocate 15% to PDBC as the portfolio's broad commodity sleeve.
04 ObserveMonitor whether inflation breadth narrows or the macro regime rotates away from stagflation; if so, this sleeve may deserve to shrink.
- OpenSGOVMay 6, 2026
Open SGOV cash-equivalent core
Establish the primary defensive cash-equivalent sleeve. In a RED / FALL regime with inflation as the dominant risk, preserving optionality matters more than forcing risk exposure. SGOV expresses capital preservation while keeping the portfolio fully invested in a liquid short-duration vehicle.
Price $100.44Value $550,00901 WorldJawz is reading a RED macro regime in the FALL quadrant: inflation remains the dominant risk, growth is mixed, and the general tilt is cash overweight, commodities overweight, equities underweight.
02 BookFor a public reference portfolio, the largest sleeve should stabilize the book and preserve flexibility rather than chase returns in a hostile regime.
03 DecideAllocate 55% to SGOV as the portfolio's core reserve and liquidity anchor.
04 ObserveIf the regime improves materially or inflation risk breaks lower, this sleeve becomes the main source of redeployable capital.